On August 28, 2005, Robert Ricks delivered the following message to the general public with the most destructive hurricane in history looming just off the Louisiana coastline in the Gulf of Mexico:
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WWUS74 KLIX 281550 NPWLIX
URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH... RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
I’m under the impression that the greatest piece of copywriting material ever written came not from an internet wiz kid or marketing genius, but rather a humble meteorologist who worked out of the New Orleans branch of the National Weather Service. Ricks had no business publishing such a harrowing and dire message - after all, the primary receivers of said transmission were strong-rooted Southerners, who had no intentions of evacuating their ancestral homes for a silly little rainstorm that happens a few times per year. But Ricks was ultimately right, and it is fair to conclude that his message indirectly saved thousands of lives. And those who did not listen did not die in vain - why should we trust governmental warning systems and messages? Aren’t they the ones trying to murder us all in cold blood?
Perhaps this is an unpopular opinion, but I believe those governmental warning systems are one of the few things our friends in Washington got right. In fact, I would go even further to say that the warning systems are not frightening enough, and need to be intensified so much to even anticipating the sound of the tornado alarm will send a lukewarm trickle down the inside of your tender thigh. Take the standard EAS warning system for example:
It’s decent. Might make you perk up like a farm cat hearing a dinner bell when it interrupts your 7:00 Seinfeld re-run on TBS. But beyond the initial jolt, you are left wondering if the so called tornado warning for your county is even a legitimate warning at all. When I first heard this sound as a kid, circa age 8, my dad was driving me home from a baseball game. EAS had interrupted local sports talk radio on the 1100 AM channel. Some guys with broken dicks groveling about how our struggling QB is spending too much time doing local Credit Union commercials and not enough time on the practice field. Anyway, when I first heard the alert as a wee lad, I was scared. While I do not recall exactly what I asked my dad, I’m sure my pre-pubescent voice trembled with fear. The most shocking aspect was the routine return to programming as if nothing had happened. Guys with broken dicks back to talking sports like grown men after a warning message about a possible tornado. When we got home, my dad made me go to the basement; 30 minutes later the storm had passed with no reported touchdowns, only funnel clouds, as documented by some terrible flip-phone camera shots from local residents that were aired on local news programs. A few years later, my seasoned ears had becoming so accustomed from the noise, that I knew when I saw the flashing red banner across the TV, it was time to go outside and look around for funnel clouds in the sky instead of cowering in fear in the basement corner with a portable flashlight and battery-powered radio like a little bitch. And perhaps I was right in my judgement that there was nothing to fear when the signature EAS alert noise graced the sound waves and harmonized in my inner ear, sending an all-too-familiar message to my brain that there is a slightly elevated chance of severe injury and/or death in the near future. That’s what risk management is, after all: you calculate the expected value of an outcome by multiplying the probability of said outcome occurring by the payoff you receive if said outcome does occur. Except we are not dealing with payoffs in this case, unless you are one of those sick fuckers who believe death is some sort of reward. If that is the case, then your equation might be more complicated than necessary. Regardless, on the topic of warning systems and how they influence a human’s ability to make life or death decisions in a situation inundated with pressure and dire consequences, it is better to be safe rather than sorry. But if it is better to be safe than sorry, why aren’t the warning systems written with more girth? Let me have a go at it:
*The most gut-wrenching, ear-drum bursting, fear-inducing sound shatters the airwaves and cuts off Oprah on the TV mid-sentence. Images of violent tornados and livestock being slaughtered by high winds play on the 46 inch LCD screen situated in your living room. There is blood and guts and sinew sprayed everywhere. Tim Burton is sobbing in fear. Motorhead is now playing and a chainsaw can be heard in the background growing louder. All of a sudden, the flesh-ripping sound of the motorized blade stops, and everything is silent for a few short moments. A deep, Anonymous style voice announces the following message in a cool and collected serial-killer tone:*
URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 557 PM EDT WED OCT 4, 2023
…HAVE YOU EVER SEEN THE MOVIE TWISTER…? NO? WELL WATCH IT NOW! WATCH IT AND TAKE NOTE OF WHAT HAPPENS TO JO’S FATHER IN ACT I, AND NOW IMAGINE IT BEING ONE THOUSAND TIMES WORSE! A STORM OF UNFATHOMABLE FORCE, SO POTENT EVEN GOD HIMSELF HAS EVACUATED THE SKY, WILL SOON RAVAGE THROUGH YOUR QUAINT LITTLE SUBURBAN HOUSING DEVELOPMENT LIKE A METH-FUELED GRIZZLY BEAR HAVING ITS WAY WITH AN UNATTENDED PICNIC BASKET. IF YOU EVEN SO DARE TO VENTURE A MERE ONE CENTIMETER OUTSIDE THE COMFORTS OF YOUR NOW FORTRESS YOU ONCE CALLED YOUR HOME, ONE BILLION TWO BY FOURS WILL RAIN DOWN FROM THE SKY AND LODGE THEMSELVES DEEP INTO YOUR SKULL. YOU WILL BE LOBOTOMIZED FROM ALL POSSIBLE ANGLES, BUT DEATH WILL NOT OCCUR FOR AT LEAST 45 MINUTES. YOU WILL SUFFER DEARLY AND BEG FOR A WELL-PLACED BULLET. IF YOU LEAVE YOUR HOME, YOU WILL BE WATERBOARDED TO NEAR DEATH BY THE DRENCHING SALTY ACID RAINS FALLING FROM THE EBONY SKY. YOUR SKIN WILL BURN. THE TORNADO WILL TRUNDLE DOWN YOUR STREET LIKE A RUNAWAY TRAIN AND SPECIFICALLY TARGET YOUR HOUSE BECAUSE THIS STORM IS SO POTENT THAT WEATHER PHENOMENONS HAVE NOW BECOME SENTIENT BEINGS. THE TORNADO WILL UPROOT THE FOUNDATION THAT YOUR BUILDER DID A POOR JOB ON AND IT WILL TRANSPORT YOUR ENTIRELY INTACT HOUSE TO THE NEAREST VOLCANO AND DUMP YOUR ENTIRE NET WORTH INTO THE UNFATHOMABLE ENDLESS HELLISH PIT OF SCORCHING HOT LAVA. YOU BEST WALK YOUR HAPPY ASS DOWNSTAIRS TO THE LOWEST POINT IN YOUR HOUSE WITH A PORTABLE BATTERY POWERED FLASHLIGHT AND RADIO AND WAIT FOR THE ALL CLEAR SIGNAL. THE CONTINUATION OF YOUR BLOODLINE DEPENDS ON IT. WHAT WILL YOU DO ANON? WILL YOU TEMPT THE FATE OF THE GODS? OR WILL YOU SEEK SHELTER AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS? THE CHOICE IS YOURS!
National Weather Service, if you are hiring, you know where to find me. I’ll be perfecting the Flash Flood Warning message.
Onwards,
Tony